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Troop Weatherman's Alexander Springs Forecast

posted Apr 30, 2013, 5:26 AM by Dan Walton   [ updated Sep 13, 2013, 2:13 PM by Web Master ]


Forecast for Alexander Springs Hike (September 14-15th) updated in the evening of 09/13/2013. This forecast is for the area of northeastern Lake County. I might tweak it slightly one more time before we depart, but I expect nothing significant. The chance of severe weather is nearly nonexistent.

 

Outlook:

*   On Saturday, we should expect a hot and humid day. If we are lucky enough to get a breeze, it will probably be light and out of the ESE. There will be a chance of rain aided by a dying “cold” front stalled out over Central Florida. At the moment, I put the rain chance at 30% with a high (peak) temperature of 93°F during the afternoon.

*   On Saturday Night, any storms that had formed during the heat of the day will probably have dissipated. The minimum temperature will probably be in the mid. 70’s … Not very comfortable at all with the humidity. Any breeze will probably be light out of the E. At the moment, I put the rain chance that night at 10%.

*   On Sunday, We should expect another hot and humid day with an occasional light E wind. For the time being, I put the high temperature at 92°F, and the rain chance at 40%.

 

Compressed version:

*  Saturday: 30% chance of rain. High 93°F.

*  Saturday Night: 10% chance of rain. Low in the mid. 70’s.

*  Sunday: 40% chance of rain. High 92°F.

 

At this time, I would say I have average forecast confidence represented by the underlined "zero" below.

-10  -9  -8  -7  -6  -5  -4  -3  -2  -1  0  +1  +2  +3  +4  +5  +6  +7  +8  +9  +10

Negative numbers represent below average confidence, zero means average, and positive means higher than normal confidence. The number I choose to represent my forecast confidence will be underlined from now on in every forecast I make.



If you are interested in my forecast archives for any reason, I still archive them on my computer; Just ask me.




If you have any questions please contact the Weather Master at: mccrearynb@cfl.rr.com



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